Jays, Maybe?

Every time you change something, the page simulates the rest of the American League season 20,000 times and counts how often each of the six teams in this race finishes as a division winner or one of the three wild cards. Games you decide are locked; everything else is drawn at random.

• Two ways to decide games. On each team's tab, pick Win or Loss game by game, or choose a remaining record from the dropdown and the simulation spreads those wins over the team's schedule (weighted toward the games it's more likely to win). A pick on a head-to-head game shows up on both teams' tabs. Records that can't coexist, like the Jays and Rangers both sweeping their series, are greyed out in the dropdown.
• The tiles show each team's chance of making the playoffs under your scenario, with the change from the no-picks baseline underneath. Once every game for these six teams is decided, a team at 100% shows the spot it lands in instead: DIV, WC1, WC2 or WC3.
• Team strength blends each club's record with its run differential (Pythagorean expectation), regressed roughly a third of the way toward .500. The home team gets about a four-point edge.
• Probable pitchers nudge a game when a starter is posted: the starter's FIP (strikeouts, walks, hit batters and home runs, scaled to look like ERA) against the league average, weighted by innings pitched. The number beside each starter is that FIP. MLB lists probables about three days out; ESPN fills in the rest of the way, where available. Games in progress use the live score, inning, outs and runners on base.
• Tiebreakers follow MLB's rules: head-to-head record among the tied clubs, then record inside the division, then record against the rest of the league. Division ties are settled first, so the loser of the Guardians / White Sox or Astros / Rangers race drops into the wild-card pool. The last step in MLB's rulebook (record over the second half of intraleague games) isn't modeled; a coin flip stands in, and it essentially never gets that far.
• Data — standings, results, remaining schedule, probable pitchers and live scores — is pulled straight from MLB and ESPN when the page loads. While one of these six teams is playing, the page refreshes itself every twenty seconds: Today's games shows the runners, count, outs, batter and pitcher; win probabilities follow the score, inning, outs and runners on base; finals are folded into the standings; and the odds are re-simulated whenever something that matters changes. It pauses while the tab is in the background.

Share a scenario by copying this page's address; your picks and finishes are kept in the link.